Three days stand out for lakefront waterbird movement: Wednesday (WSW at 15mph), Thursday (N at 15mph), and Saturday: NW at 10mph.
Thursday and Saturday look best. Thursday: a low pressure cold front coming through (rain and 47 degrees) out of the dead-north. Saturday: cold front (44 degrees) with NW winds. If these forecasts hold, look forward to a decent movement of waterfowl and gulls along the NE coastline, with Parasitic AND Pomarine Jaeger as possible highlight birds. As the first of November closes in, there is increased chance of the following lakefront rarities: Harlequin Duck, King Eider, Purple Sandpiper, Black-legged Kittiwake, Little Gull, Black-headed Gull, Northern Gannet, Cave Swallow (and more).
Passerines (warblers) are dwindling save for some nice flocks of Yellow-rumped Warblers (with a scattered few Palm, Pine, Blackpoll (now becoming rare), Nashville mixed in). Kinglets are still fairly thick, Brown Creepers, Hermit and a few Swainson’s Thrushes, and Yellow-bellied Sapsuckers are around, and sparrows are still building. Blackbirds and waxwings are now some of the most dense “flocking” species. Any swallows along the lake, at this point, are suspect for Cave. Crows are forming winter roosts (flock of 800+ in Fairlawn, Summit County). Vultures are still pushing south. A visit to Lake Erie Metropark on the Detroit coastline may give you a shot at Northern Goshawk and Golden Eagle. For that matter, posting up at Maumee Bay State Park or anywhere in the Toledo region, including Oak Openings, may provide you a chance at seeing a Golden, one of the most magnificent raptors.
We’ll see how this 5-day pans out. This October, weatherwise, has been one of the most dicy-to-predict months that I can remember, with winds routinely shifting by the day. Here’s hoping that November plays out with wicked NW cold fronts!